Draftniks, rejoice. Your favorite time of the year officially kicks off this week when the NFL scouting combine commences in Indianapolis.
Starting Wednesday and running through Monday, more than 330 of the top college football prospects will be on display for NFL owners, coaches, general managers, and personnel people, trying to convince someone that they are worthy enough to be drafted.
For part of their stay in Indianapolis they will be in their underwear getting extensive medical examinations at a local hospital; at times they will be in shorts and numbered workout shirts as they run through the various on-field drills inside the home of the Indianapolis Colts, Lucas Oil Stadium; and at other times they will be wearing casual attire as they meet with the media, and then with individual teams that have requested a 15-minute sit down.
The combine is quite a production, and football fans seem to love it, which is why NFL Network, starting Wednesday, will provide 52 hours of live coverage that will include the workouts, press conferences by coaches, GMs and the players, and analysis from studio talent such as draft guru Mike Mayock.
ESPN, of course, will also be on site and their NFL Live program will be, as the name would suggest, live from 1:30 to 3 p.m. in Indy with its team of analysts weighing in led by Mel Kiper and Todd McShay.
I’ll be in Indy as well, and my week will begin Wednesday morning when Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott takes the podium at 9:15 to discuss the state of the Bills with the national media, then breaks off for another session with just the western New York contingent of reporters.
General manager Brandon Beane will do the same as he will speak to the masses at 10:30, then with the locals shortly thereafter. After that, it will be all about the college prospects.
First up are the running backs, offensive linemen, kickers and punters who take their physicals Wednesday, then jump into the fray on Thursday. That busy day they will undergo psychological testing and perform on the bench press, then do their media interviews in the afternoon and go through their individual team meeting tour Thursday night. On Friday, they participate in the rest of the on-field tests such as the 40-yard dash, the three-cone drill, the vertical and broad jumps, the 20- and 60-yard shuttles, and position specific drills, then fly home.
Thereafter, the schedule is the same for all positions, with everything pushed back a day. Thus, quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends begin the process on Thursday, defensive linemen and linebackers get going Friday, and defensive backs start on Saturday, with everything wrapping up by Monday afternoon.
The Bills are going to be one of the most interesting teams over the next couple months, which encompasses the combine, the start of NFL free agency in mid-March, the attending of individual school pro days, and of course, the culmination of everything with the April 26-28 draft.
Their need for a franchise quarterback, and how they will go about acquiring one, will dictate what they do throughout this critical period in the NFL calendar. Will they stick with Tyrod Taylor? Will they try to hit the grand slam and sign Kirk Cousins? Will they settle for another veteran free agent? Or will they go for broke in the draft and trade up into the top 5 in the first round to get their man?
Of course, quarterback isn’t the only priority for the Bills. Despite a 9-7 record in 2017 which enabled them – barely – to end their 17-year playoff drought, they have several areas that must be fortified before the 2018 season begins. Here’s where I believe they should concentrate their efforts this week at the combine:
1. Quarterback. Obviously. A couple months ago when Beane was asked if he’d personally seen the top-rated college quarterbacks play last season, his reply was, “All the ones that matter.” That was an indication that he’s not fooling around and settling for someone who may be available when the Bills are scheduled to pick in the first round in the back-to-back 21st and 22nd spots, or perhaps waiting until the second round.
Beane and, I would presume, McDermott, will fall in love with one of the top four – UCLA’s Josh Rosen, USC’s Sam Darnold, Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, or Wyoming’s Josh Allen – and will be exploring every opportunity to move up high enough to secure that player. I would expect that all four will find their way into the Bills’ hotel suite Thursday or Friday night, and that will be the most critical part of their evaluation in Indy.
2. Defensive tackle. I’m not ready to give up on Shaq Lawson yet, so the Bills shouldn’t be looking for an edge rusher early in the draft. The void up front is at tackle, especially if Kyle Williams doesn’t return, but honestly, they need help there even if he does come back for one more season.
At 35 years old, Williams would be a rotational piece and couldn’t be expected to play 68.4 percent of the snaps, as he did last year, which was 27th in the NFL among defensive linemen. And while Adolphus Washington shows some occasional flash, it’s not nearly enough to be a full-time starter, so the Bills need two tackles who could become starters in 2018. They probably wouldn’t trade up for one, so if they stay at 21 and 22, Alabama’s DaRon Payne figures to be gone, but there are three others to watch who may be there.
Stanford’s Harrison Phillips, a first-team All-Pac-12 pick, is a bit undersized at 303 pounds, but he reminds many evaluators of Williams in the way he grinds on every down and overcomes non-elite size with effort and intelligence. Washington’s Vita Vea, a 6-foot-4, 340-pound mountain in the middle who destroyed double teams, not only joined Phillips on the Pac-12 first team, he was the conference’s defensive player of the year. And Michigan’s All-Big-10 first-teamer, Maurice Hurst, is interesting, even though he weighs only 280. His quickness is the key to his game, but he was only a one-year starter for Big Blue, so projecting him is tricky.
3. Linebacker. There seems to be some traction to the Bills’ re-signing Preston Brown, but I’m not I’m buying it. Brown makes a lot of tackles, but I think McDermott would prefer to find someone more athletic to play the middle in his defense. There will be some opportunities to fill this need in free agency, but if they draft someone – again assuming they stay at 21 and 22 – Georgia’s Roquan Smith would be ideal.
Smith was the SEC’s defensive player of the year, and there’s a good chance he’s long gone, but some evaluators aren’t thrilled that he doesn’t take on blockers very well, and at 225 pounds, he’s a bit undersized. If Smith isn’t available, Iowa’s Josey Jewell and Texas’ Malik Jefferson would be excellent second-round gets.
4. Cornerback. This became less of a priority Monday night when the Bills signed nine-year NFL veteran free agent Vontae Davis to apparently replace their own free agent, E.J. Gaines. It always seemed to me that the Bills weren't going to get into a bidding war for Gaines, so the Davis signing - on a one-year contract - is a good move.
Still, it's a one-year deal, so the Bills will need to take a look at this position, especially if they don't plan to re-sign nickel cornerback Leonard Johnson. Ohio State’s Denzel Ward, Iowa’s Josh Jackson, or Auburn’s Carlton Davis would be a good place to start the conversation.
Ward is only 5-10, but he’s a remarkable athlete who has run the 40 in the 4.37 range. Jackson is considered by some to be better than Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick who is projected as a top 5 pick. Jackson is 6-foot-1 and can stand at the line and press cover, but is quick enough to get his hips turned and run with receivers. Davis also stands 6-1 but weighs 12 pounds more than Jackson at 203, so he has the length and physicality to play man-to-man, even if he’s a touch slower than Jackson and Ward.
5. Wide receiver. The Bills were awful at this position in 2017, and they have to hope that a full and healthy year from Kelvin Benjamin, and improvement from Zay Jones, helps fix that. Still, the depth is terrible, so free agency is a place they may look to upgrade because counting on rookie wideouts is dicey in the NFL.
The Bills need a deep threat because neither Benjamin or Jones provides that, so in the second round, LSU’s D.J. Chark would be intriguing. Because LSU did not throw the ball effectively in the defensive-minded SEC, his statistics are not great (66 catches, 1,339 yards and 6 TDs in two seasons), but he has the combination of straight-line speed (4.39 in the 40) and size (6-foot-3, 197 pounds) that makes scouts drool.
6. Center. Many think the Bills need to replace the retired Eric Wood with a first-round pick, and the names attached to that idea are Ohio State’s Billy Price and Iowa’s James Daniels. I just don’t see the merit in spending a first-round pick at center when you have Ryan Groy in the building for 2018.
Should the Bills draft a center? Sure, but not in the first round, or even the second round. Call me crazy, but I thought Groy played well when he took over for the final seven games of 2016 when Wood was out. I’d give him another chance.
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